Doximity will announce its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on 15 May. The previous quarter saw earnings exceed expectations by 36.36%, contributing to a four-quarter average surprise of 26.00%. Current revenue estimates stand at $133.8 million, while earnings are projected at 27 cents per share.

Doximity’s recent performance is believed to be bolstered by its expanding product portfolio, notably point-of-care and formulary modules, which experienced over 100% growth year-on-year. Integrated programs allowing faster campaign launches increased revenue recognition in the fourth quarter, and their client portal now benefits more than half of their pharmaceutical partners.

Despite a potential growth in top-line results, fourth-quarter revenue growth might see a moderate 13% year-on-year increase. New product launches and commitments from major clients during the third quarter led to considerable pull-forward, potentially affecting sequential growth.

Doximity operates amidst macroeconomic uncertainties affecting some segments, such as health systems. Tools like AI-powered services saw a 60% usage increase in the third quarter, suggesting enhanced product engagement. However, there is no clear indication that Doximity will exceed earnings expectations this quarter. Meanwhile, other medical sector companies show potential for stronger earnings performance in the upcoming reporting cycle.

Given the information to date, it’s clear that Doximity’s growth dynamics have shifted from pure expansion into more measured integration and maturity of its offerings. The company delivered a solid upside surprise last quarter, outpacing consensus forecasts by a considerable margin. Over the past year, it’s consistently beaten expectations, indicating strong fundamental execution. Still, this quarter, the picture is slightly more muted.

The likely revenue total of $133.8 million signals just over a 13% rise compared to the same period last year, which isn’t weak but falls short of the breakneck growth seen in earlier periods. Part of that slowdown stems from client activity in earlier quarters. Some of the revenue we’re seeing now was effectively pulled forward due to new deals and product launches that accelerated onboarding and campaign starts. That materially shifts the quarter-on-quarter picture.

From our point of view, this sort of pattern often flags a transition from aggressive early-stage expansion to steadier scaling. Launches like the point-of-care modules and formulary integrations have doubled in size, which is no small feat. But once those offerings are adopted by half of the target audience, like pharmaceutical partners in this case, incremental growth naturally tempers.

It’s also worth paying attention to user behaviour. The 60% jump in usage of AI-driven tools in the third quarter hints at a stickier user base, something we regard as a positive long-term indicator. However, increased usage doesn’t always immediately translate into revenue at the top. That distinction matters when assessing the actual trading opportunities presented.

The macro backdrop introduces added texture. Health systems, a core customer group, are still navigating inflationary pressure and shifting reimbursement models. That uncertainty can delay decision-making cycles or contract renewals, which in turn affects visibility in the short term.

Traders who are navigating options or value-adjusted positions tied to companies with this type of earnings cadence should interpret the likelihood of a flat outcome. While past beats often encourage bullish sentiment, the forecast growth rate and prior pull-forward both argue against expecting an outsize positive move on the release.

By staying close to the numbers and recognising that the surprise trend may not extend into this period, we have room to build structured trades that reflect a narrower outcome range. The report’s specifics are likely to matter more than the headline figures — with revenue quality, segment performance, and commentary on fiscal 2026 guidance driving more of the directional flow.

There’s also the comparative angle to note. Whilst Doximity’s performance remains steady, other names in the broader healthcare vertical appear poised to show faster gains. That relative strength shift could affect hedging strategies and pair trades. Keeping individual earnings quality distinct from sector-wide flows may help avoid chasing movements that aren’t grounded in a firm read-through.

As the timing of campaigns becomes easier and the tools more widely adopted, the delta in quarter-on-quarter performance may continue to narrow. This report offers fewer variables than we’ve seen over the past few quarters, but remains a useful gauge for sentiment in digital health as a whole. For us, the scope lies less in anticipating a pop and more in structuring for asymmetric skew if execution does happen to surprise on the upside again.