Insights 
VT 
The Baker Hughes US oil rig count has decreased from 479 to 474. This provides insight into current oil drilling activities in the United States.
EUR/USD has held above 1.1250 but remains at risk of posting small weekly losses. The pair finds some support as traders exercise caution ahead of upcoming US-China trade talks.
Gbp And Us Trade Talks
GBP/USD has extended its recovery, approaching 1.3300, influenced by shifts in focus towards US-China trade negotiations. This comes amid a period when the BoE has adopted a cautious outlook.
Gold is experiencing gains above $3,300 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in various regions. The situation has contributed to safe-haven demand for gold, bolstering its current position.
In the coming week, focus will be on the US CPI report to assess tariff impacts. Developments in trade talks with China, alongside economic indicators from the US, UK, and Japan, will be closely monitored.
A new UK-US trade deal aims to lower tariffs and signals flexibility, though wider implications for US tariff policy remain unclear. This may affect perceptions of international trade relations moving forward.
Energy Market Trends
The recent dip in the Baker Hughes US oil rig count from 479 to 474 points to a slight slowdown in American drilling efforts. While this isn’t a drastic falloff, it subtly shifts the supply outlook—especially if the trend persists over the next few weeks. For those watching energy-linked assets or inflation-linked instruments, we could see slight pricing adjustments should oil output expectations soften further. In short, reduced activity here may feed into broader interpretations of energy market momentum with possible knock-on effects in pricing pressure assumptions.
The EUR/USD remaining above 1.1250 reflects ongoing stability, but the pair seems to be lacking strong direction. Traders appear reluctant to take decisive positions ahead of concrete outcomes from US-China discussions. With the common currency showing resilience, it seems there’s still underlying support—possibly anchored in policy divergence. However, weekly performance may still edge lower if US data remains firm. In that case, the dollar would regain some composure, prompting short-term European pullbacks against it.
Meanwhile, sterling has regained some ground, pushing towards 1.3300. This bounce cannot be seen in isolation, as sentiment is spinning off attention to global trade dialogues. While the Bank of England maintains its restrained stance, we see rate expectations in the UK stalling. As such, recent moves in cable likely stem from broader risk appetite and relative dollar softness, rather than any profound UK economic shifts. Should external trade narratives sour, any rebound in GBP might struggle to continue without domestic backing.
Gold trading above $3,300 reflects continued appetite for defensive positioning. Regional tensions—both economic and military—have contributed to heightened interest in stores of value. In these conditions, the metal seems sensitive less to interest rate pathways, more to real-time geopolitical shifts. We’ve noticed that inflows have sustained despite rising yield environments, hinting that the current bid is about preserving value in uncertain times rather than reacting to central bank direction outright.
Looking ahead, all eyes are turning to US inflation data. The CPI will likely provide timely evidence as to whether recent tariff measures are feeding through to the real economy. Should consumer price growth remain sticky or surprise to the upside, yield expectations could reset rapidly. This would have immediate reads onto curve pricing, volatility strategies, and short-duration hedging activity. On the other hand, if inflation shows signs of moderation, we might see rate expectations unwind in key contracts, releasing some pressure across risk assets.
The upcoming updates from trade discussions with Beijing remain a major factor. Existing positioning across several markets seem to reflect a cautiously optimistic stance, which opens some vulnerability to any disappointment in headlines. We also note the movement around bilateral trade deals, particularly those aiming to smooth tariff regimes between Western counterparts. These efforts appear to show adaptability rather than a formal pivot. Still, the broader framework of American trade policy is not yet clearly set. That can inject volatility into global asset benchmarks, should policy direction take a pronounced turn.
Overall, as we manage exposure across currencies, commodities, and rates, the mix of slower US oil activity, delicate FX ranges, firmer gold, and pending data creates an environment ripe for recalibrating hedges and rethinking positioning tactically rather than chasing momentum.
