Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar (USD) has room to rise against the Chinese Yuan (CNH), yet lacks the energy to surpass the 7.2600 level. Although the USD advanced to 7.2463, it still shows limited upward momentum.
In a 24-hour view, the USD was expected to move between 7.2070 and 7.2370 but reached 7.2463. Resistance is strong at 7.2600, while support rests at 7.2300, with a break below 7.2180 signalling a halt in further rises.
Market Analysis
Over a 1-3 week period, the USD was discussed on 06 May when trading at 7.2150. The possibility of a decline remains, but the currency mostly trades within a range due to a slowdown in downward momentum.
A breach of the 7.2600 mark may signal a range-trading rather than a continuing decline. Caution is advised as market investments carry risks, including potential full loss of investment.
Given the price movement seen lately, the USD continues to hover near its local highs against the CNH, but the drive to break clearly through the 7.2600 barrier remains lacking. The brief lift to 7.2463 did show some strength, though it fell short of knocking through resistance. That level continues to serve as a lid on further appreciation.
Over the short term, the market has leaned slightly upward, yet without the strong follow-through needed to hold beyond established levels. Support is found at 7.2300; under that, 7.2180 serves as a sharper line in the sand. A dip through it would indicate the rally is not resuming just yet. From our perspective, the reluctance to punch through resistance while staying comfortably above critical supports keeps expectations limited—movement, yes, but not an explosive breakout.
Trading Strategy
In the current one-to-three week window, range trading continues to dominate. When assessed earlier in May around 7.2150, there had been fading downward force, and that still appears to be the case. Though the odds of a decline aren’t fully off the table, pressure has eased. One takeaway is that although the dollar may flirt with highs, we shouldn’t be betting on persistent advances unless resistance shifts higher soon.
From a practical angle, for those managing risk within derivative exposure or position-based strategies, this range-bound character means tighter stops may be more appropriate. Trades based on a trend breakout timing could be de-prioritised for now. Strategies that profit from smaller movements or take advantage of range-bound behaviour are likely to prove more reliable in the near term.
Furthermore, it’s worth noting that any break past 7.2600 would likely reset the tone, not necessarily as a signal of bullish continuation, but more as confirmation that the market has switched gears temporarily. Until then, evidence points toward keeping positions light and nimble, with focus on balancing entry levels near both extremes of the range where risk-to-reward profiles remain skewed in our favour.
