The EURUSD is experiencing a downturn as sellers countered resistance at the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, moving towards a vital support zone. The price has returned to a support level between 1.1265 and 1.12754, previously facilitating upward momentum. This area is under scrutiny again, with its ability to hold bearing on short-term market direction.

The currency pair remains under the 100-hour moving average at 1.1339 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.1327, maintaining a bearish outlook. To alter this trajectory, EURUSD must rise above these moving averages to shift market control.

If the price falls below 1.1265, increased selling pressure could target 1.12505, aligning with the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 trend. Extended losses could reveal support between 1.1200 to 1.1213 and 1.11509, where a 50% retracement is situated.

For a bullish reversal, breaking above the 100/200-hour moving averages is necessary. Currently, watch the 1.1265 level as a key battleground for directional control.

As it stands, we are watching a market that’s testing the lower bounds of short-term support following a bounce that failed at familiar technical barriers. The failure near the 100- and 200-hour moving averages confirms that sellers remain willing to assert themselves when momentum flags. That the price pulled back to a former area of demand – between 1.1265 and 1.12754 – and is hesitating there, tells us this region still holds technical importance. It previously supported a push upwards; if it now breaks, that pattern flips. Where demand once stepped in, supply may take over.

The pair remains under its shorter-term trend lines. Staying below both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages reflects an imbalance, where buyers do not yet have the upper hand. Our attention should remain focused on these averages. They lie fairly close to one another, which tells us they could act as a combined resistance block, not just two isolated levels. A decisive move above wouldn’t only shift technical sentiment—it would force those with short positions to reassess, especially if accompanied by increased volume.

The next downside markers are clearly laid out. A slip through 1.1265 might initiate a move towards 1.12505, a level that corresponds with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s rise. That’s not just a percentage or a textbook metric—it’s where we’ve previously seen a slowdown in such pullbacks. A failure to hold here would likely trigger a move towards 1.1200–1.1213. That pocket, paired with the more distant 1.11509 which coincides with the 50% mark, presents a layered cushion, but one that erodes with each test. Markets remember where buyers got involved, but not indefinitely.

Near-term, everything hinges on whether the 1.1265 level acts as a floor or simply delays further declines. We cannot expect traders to remain indifferent at these junctures. It is the area where positioning decisions get recalibrated. Holding here may attract short-covering and speculative probing to the upside, but without a real push above those moving averages, any bounce can be shallow and fade quickly.

Because we remain clearly below those hourly trend markers, directional bias leans to the downside. Momentum, price structure, and failed attempts to reclaim lost ground all reinforce that. Patience is needed before shifting to the long side—half-signals cause damage in this kind of trade environment. The pullback is not random; it is structured and measured.

We should continue tracking how price behaves not only at key levels but also between them. The spaces in between—how much ground is gained or lost without intervention—may give us more insight than the levels themselves. Price movement is telling its own story; the trick is listening without projecting what we want it to say.