Trump is expected to announce a trade deal with the UK at 10am US Eastern time on Thursday. This follows ongoing discussions between the U.S. and Britain regarding reductions in British tariffs on American goods such as cars and agricultural products.

Also under negotiation is the removal of UK digital taxes on U.S. technology companies. It is not yet certain if this announcement means the deal is finalised or if it outlines a framework for further talks. Unlike other nations, Britain has not faced extra tariffs due to its trade surplus with the U.S. but is still impacted by a 10% global tariff and a 25% levy on steel, aluminium, and cars.

Uk As A Trade Partner

The UK has been considered a possible partner for a trade deal; however, there are doubts about the predictions due to past reporting on Trump’s announcements. The situation remains fluid as these details continue to evolve.

If Trump proceeds with a formal announcement at the designated time, that may point to either a broad agreement or, more plausibly, a political gesture ahead of final negotiations. Past behaviour has shown that statements—especially those delivered with fanfare—don’t always reflect conclusions at the policy level. What we’re likely looking at is either a partial framework that still requires legal articulation, or a declaration intended to apply pressure ahead of other bilateral conversations.

The areas touched upon—automotive goods, agriculture, digital taxation—are all sensitive for both parties. From a market perspective, we should treat them not as completed regulatory shifts, but as early signals. Not everything mentioned in public forums translates directly into enforceable policy, particularly when tariffs and digital taxes are involved. These sorts of changes, even when agreed in principle, still depend on how they are later codified into domestic law and adjusted through institutional review. We therefore cannot act under the assumption that tariff exposure will ease immediately or evenly across product groups.

Lighthizer’s previous trends suggest this might be a staging ground for further escalation in other directions. There are few reasons to believe the pattern has broken. He and Ross have both indicated that steel and aluminium duties were not exclusively about net trade balances, but about broader goals including capacity and origin tracing. Those levies have become long-term fixtures, and while any trade statement can reference them, actual policy lifting them would require internal regulatory procedures we have not yet seen put in motion. Until such adjustments occur in writing, exposure to the 10% and 25% rates must still be priced in. If anything, they could be the last provisions to move.

Market Reactions

We should also re-emphasise that although the UK has avoided retaliatory measures stemming from its current account dynamics—whereas other nations have not—this hasn’t insulated British firms from wider tariff policy ripple-effects. That distinction matters when looking at any announcement timed during US morning hours, which regularly leads European market opens. Thin liquidity and early positioning could drive larger-than-normal moves without any change to underlying conditions. In those hours, it’s easy to confuse direction for clarity.

Markets will need to decide quickly whether they take any announcement at face value or interpret it as an ongoing negotiation tactic. Short-term traders should recognise that headline risk here doesn’t necessarily change regulatory timelines. Most of what’s possible in the coming two weeks will be short-dated sentiment shifts, often priced back out once details fail to emerge. For positions with any correlation to automotive names or tech firms subject to DST regulations, there’s logic in treating the move as intra-session noise until guidance is formalised through policy channels.

This also applies to portfolios with steel or metal exposure, especially those linked to cross-Atlantic industries. Options on those assets may become reactive, especially if additional commentary suggests sector exemptions are possible. But again, the reward for early movement is skewed unless there’s a definitive repeal or published schedule.

We’re watching how the pricing on implied volatility moves across any instruments that might benefit from a scenario where this leads to real de-escalation—but so far, it’s just talk.

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