Switzerland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained constant at 2.8% in April. This figure has shown no change compared to previous months, maintaining stability in the country’s labour market.

The Australian Dollar rebounded past 0.6450, assisted by a positive global risk tone and a rate cut in China. Meanwhile, the US Dollar struggled despite a hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve, affecting trade relations with China.

Usd Jpy Trading Influences

USD/JPY traded near 143.50, influenced by geopolitical risks and a weaker US Dollar, following comments from the Bank of Japan’s Governor. The Japanese Yen’s strength continued to weigh on the pair amid ongoing uncertainties.

Gold prices held at around $3,400, with buying sentiment supported by US-China trade uncertainties. The US President indicated no urgency in resolving trade issues, impacting market optimism.

Cryptocurrency markets experienced slight growth, with total sector valuation exceeding $3.1 trillion. Bitcoin surged past $97.5K, driven by shifts in the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy.

The FOMC maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations. This decision reflects ongoing caution in the economic environment, as stakeholders assess potential fiscal implications.

Fomc Rate Expectations

The FOMC holding rates at 4.25% to 4.50% was in line with what most expected going into the week. We view the decision as a marker of continued patience from policymakers, possibly indicating they’re not yet convinced inflation has returned to the desired path. For short-term rate instruments, it limits any sharp repricings—for now. However, the wording from Powell suggests flexibility remains on the table, so volatility could resurface with minimal provocation. We should read this as a short-term pause, not a sign that monetary tightening is finished. Fixed income markets have already priced this in, but option markets may still carry some moderate skew depending on how inflation data lands in the coming sessions.

Gold’s ability to hold above $3,400 brings to mind how reliable it’s become as a hedge amid geopolitical noise and uncertain macro outcomes. Conditions out of East Asia—particularly from trade policy and diplomatic rhetoric—are being re-assessed regularly by the market. With leadership on both sides suggesting no rush to unwind tariffs or rekindle aggressive talks, appetite for non-interest-bearing assets like gold lingers. Traders might consider volatility strategies here, particularly with implied pricing for hard assets diverging from realised moves. Positioning remains light, which adds to the probability of sharp moves in either direction if headlines shift unexpectedly.

USD/JPY’s move near 143.50 looks steady at first glance, but there’s a mix of forces battling underneath. While the US Dollar’s sluggishness reflects weariness driven by dovish tones from Washington, the Yen is being somewhat propped up by subtle but impactful comments from Ueda. Traders should remember that Japan’s central bank is still reluctant to commit to a timeline on policy tweaks. We don’t expect a sudden recalibration, but continued strength in the Yen could complicate things further downstream. Leverage on that pair merits tightening until new signals emerge. Keep exposure responsive rather than predictive.

In crypto, the sector valuation pushing through $3.1 trillion could embolden capital rotation from altcoins into higher-market-cap assets. Bitcoin crossing $97,500 grabs attention, but the driver is less technical and more tied to maturing expectations about real rates. When the FOMC softens guidance, as seen recently, digital asset traders often interpret this as supporting risk. Nonetheless, volumes remain hesitantly low considering the price levels. It’s becoming clear that enthusiasm for digital assets isn’t spreading evenly—suggesting we may see more polarisation here, most likely in derivative pricing. Rates desks might pay close attention to how liquidity pools behave near round price numbers, especially above $100K.

On the other side of the globe, Switzerland’s unemployment holding at 2.8% doesn’t alter much in terms of macroeconomic signals, but it reinforces that the labour market is no immediate concern. No contraction, no overheating—this spells reliability. Local data isn’t triggering volatility across EUR/CHF, which opens the door for carry-focused strategies in the region to continue as they have.

Elsewhere, strength in the Australian Dollar above 0.6450 seems more reactive than structural, boosted by optimism following monetary easing in China. That move from the PBOC has implications for yield differentials, and the Aussie is often one of the first to respond in Asia-Pacific. Still, we’ve noticed that any tailwind from China tends to have a limited half-life unless backed by follow-through from commodity demand. Spot traders may wish to adjust expectations down slightly, as risk-on sentiment is uneven globally. Option traders could look into selling topside vol, at least temporarily.

The overall tilt remains data-driven, with traders likely to reward clarity and punish ambiguity. Repricing is being fuelled not by sudden changes but by nudges in narrative—from central banks, from geopolitical developments, and from expectations around liquidity. In this environment, keeping size modest and leaning into noisy reversals could serve us better than chasing broader moves. We’ll stay focused on clarity from upcoming inflation prints and any unscheduled communications from policymakers before re-engaging more aggressively.

Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.