Insights 
VT 
The AUDUSD experienced a downward shift after initially surpassing the 0.6504 swing high, now challenging the 200-day moving average at 0.6460. A drop below this mark could indicate further downward movement towards the 0.6428 level.
Previously, the pair momentarily exceeded the 0.6504 swing high set in December 2024, but the advance lacked momentum, leading to a reversal. This suggests that the market did not sustain the push past resistance, resulting in increased selling pressure.
Current Market Conditions
Currently, the pair is hovering around the 200-day moving average and retesting at 0.6460. Should the price fall beneath this and the 100-hour MA at 0.6452, it may approach the 200-hour MA at 0.6428.
A swing area from 0.6429 to 0.6442 is a crucial zone for determining the short-term trend. Maintaining this area could provide buyers with a foundation for another increase attempt, whereas a drop below could favour sellers.
Notable levels to monitor:
Resistance: 0.6504 (failed breakout zone), 0.6514 (new high for 2025)
Support: 0.6460 (200-day MA), 0.6452 (100-hour MA), 0.6428 (200-hour MA), 0.6429–0.6442 (swing area)
What we have seen recently is a failed attempt to maintain a move above 0.6504—an area that in December acted as a ceiling and has now demonstrated its authority once more. The inability to stay above this level has led to a pullback, and by now the price is testing more medium-term measures of balance. The 200-day moving average at 0.6460 is being scrutinised by the market, and its role as a dividing line between strength and weakness is being put to the test.
Price Activity and Market Expectations
The latest price activity tells us there’s been a softening of bullish pressure after an attempted break above resistance lacked depth, and the retreat has pressed the price back into a more neutral territory. A continuation lower that breaks cleanly beneath both the 200-day and the nearby 100-hour moving averages would likely uncover more selling, and with that, open the way towards the 200-hour mark near 0.6428. That level fits inside a range we’ve been watching closely, between 0.6429 and 0.6442. It’s a zone that’s provided both strong floors and failed bounces—essentially, a battleground for short-term positioning.
If this zone gives way, there’s little in the way of immediate barriers to halt further decline. The reaction here will tell us plenty about what’s left of buying interest. We are keen to see whether the pair can hold this area again or whether the weight of recent selling has shifted expectations amongst participants.
The levels above—the failed 0.6504 move and the newer 2025 high at 0.6514—will matter only if the current slide stabilises and is followed by a well-backed recovery. Until then, bias remains with the downside, particularly if lower averages start acting as resistance rather than support.
Traders should expect erratic movement around these technical boundaries, especially if short-term timeframes begin to align with more entrenched directional cues. Given recent price behaviour, we’ll be focusing not just on where price settles, but how aggressively it moves through these key averages. Prominent rejections or swift breaks can guide confidence in timing exposure.
With momentum cooling and a failed push now behind us, priorities likely change. We are watching more than just the next tick. The structure of each attempt—failing or succeeding—tells us where weight is being placed within the market. If the 200-hour area is tested with weak follow-through from buyers, we know where positioning is going. If price bounces strongly off the base, then upward interest is attempting its hand again, but it must do so with conviction, or else the burden of proof remains with bulls.
Expect pullbacks to be measured by their recovery pace, and rally attempts to be judged by volume and reaction near the recent swing highs. Until decisive movement emerges, the preference leans towards probing weakness rather than chasing momentum. Volatility around the moving averages should not be surprising—this is where short-duration commitments often collide.
