Insights 
VT 
Crude oil stocks decreased by 2.032 million barrels, differing from the expected decrease of 0.833 million. The private API data showed a larger reduction of 4.49 million barrels.
Gasoline stocks showed an increase of 0.188 million barrels, contrary to the expected reduction of 1.600 million barrels. Distillates saw a reduction of 1.107 million barrels, slightly less than the projected draw of 1.271 million.
Market Analysis
In the market, API crude oil is trading at $58.62, down by $0.46. It previously reached a high of $60.22 and a low of $58.59. The price is nearing the 100-hour moving average of $58.26. Earlier, it surpassed the 200-hour moving average, which is now at $59.70. Additionally, it moved beyond the 50% midpoint of the drop from the 23 April high, positioned at $60.08. Momentum at the midpoint and the resistance level of $60 decreased quickly.
The release of the crude oil inventory figures shows a steeper drawdown than analysts had pencilled in. Instead of the 0.833 million barrel drop that many were anticipating, the official data came in at just over two million. Even that, however, is still far below what the API had reported the day before, with their figures showing a draw of more than twice that amount. Immediately, that suggests that the market was bracing for a tighter supply scenario than what eventually made its way into the official report.
At the same time, petrol inventories recorded a small build—not only did that defy the anticipated removal from storage, but it also followed a prior week where usage had appeared to lift. That addition to supply, even if modest in volume, is informing current trader positioning where demand is concerned. The drop in distillate stocks was fairly in line but came in just below the forecast, offering slightly less support to bullish pressures from that category.
We’re seeing a very technical phase in price action. The contract is hovering just above key short-term levels, notably the 100-hour average, which lately has been drawing tighter as volatility drops from recent highs. Previously, it managed to surpass both the longer 200-hour average and the midpoint of the recent downside move that began in late April. That’s given way to weaker follow-through, particularly around the $60 threshold, where selling interest returned abruptly.
Trading Implications
In the short term, it would make sense to remain sensitive to any price rejections near recent resistance points, especially as upward movement loses steam around well-observed levels such as the prior Fibonacci midpoint. The softness appearing there reflects a fading momentum and diminishing willingness to buy strength.
Volume has also been thinning in those higher ranges, which tends to amplify reversals near resistance zones. Prices pausing so close to structural areas—like moving averages and retracement percentages—should never be taken as neutral; we should treat them as signals of hesitation. These hesitations often expose temporary imbalances between expectation and inventory reality, which tends to show up quickest in near-month futures.
Should we see prices slip back below the 100-hour average, one possible route is further probing downsides, especially if builds in petrol continue or if upcoming data illustrate softening consumption patterns. Any recovery rally will need to do more than test $60 now—it has to close above it and carry volume, or the move risks another stall.
The API versus official report discrepancy remains a short-term variable, but not one to anchor bias onto. Disparities like this tend to correct within days, either by confirming tighter draws in subsequent releases or being muddied by revised data flows. For us, what’s more telling is where the market starts selling, and how quickly it does so. That’s been at levels just north of $60—and that’s not gone unnoticed.
As we watch how storage levels develop, particularly for refined products, energy contracts may begin to lean further into changes in regional balances and refinery metrics. The sharp ice between realised data and priced assumptions usually doesn’t last long. The adjustments that follow often bring about productive opportunities for those prepared to react based on price, not predisposition.
