Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar was under pressure, extending its losses due to selling interest. Focus shifts to central bank rate decisions, particularly the Federal Reserve.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw minor losses, ending near 100.00. Key upcoming data includes the Balance of Trade and the API’s US crude oil inventory report.
Euro Dollar Movement
EUR/USD made a marginal advance around 1.1300. Upcoming releases include Germany’s HCOB Services PMIs and regional Producer Prices.
GBP/USD reversed a four-day loss streak, with support at 1.3270-1.3260. The UK will release its final S&P Global Services PMI data soon.
USD/JPY retraced to the mid-143.00s, influenced by the Greenback’s mild fall. Japan awaits the Jibun Bank Services PMI on May 7.
AUD/USD rose, nearing the 0.6500 mark, following Friday’s climb. Australia will release data on Building Permits and Private House Approvals next.
WTI prices declined towards yearly lows near $55, with OPEC+ signalling output cuts in June. Gold rose past $3,300 per ounce, supported by stable safe-haven demand, while silver found support around $32.00 per ounce.
What we’re seeing is a coordinated pause in the recent dollar strength, driven not so much by a single data point but by the market recalibrating expectations around coming interest rate decisions. Momentum on the US Dollar Index drifting lower, hovering around the 100.00 handle, suggests that short positions are being favoured while traders wait for more insight from the Federal Reserve. If trade and energy figures further disappoint, this bias may persist into the second half of the month.
For those watching EUR/USD, the pair has started to creep higher, finding support around 1.1300. This isn’t a wide stretch, but enough to suggest buyers are stepping in ahead of Germany’s services and pricing data. We consider this data particularly useful in gauging inflation trends in the region, which could cause sharp repricing on rate bets depending how it prints. Any beat in Producer Prices or better-than-expected PMIs from Germany could trigger a continued upward trajectory. That may hint at room for further divergence trades, especially if paired with subdued data out of the US.
Sterling Performance and Outlook
Sterling has broken out of its four-day slide, holding above the 1.3260 area. There appears to be fresh interest ahead of the UK’s final services print, which tends to be overlooked but has caught attention this time due to recent revisions. If the final numbers align or even post a modest upside revision, it may motivate carry-seeking flows, particularly if short-term gilts remain stable. This can prompt some tactical long placements on the pound in the interim, especially in relative yield comparisons.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY has stepped back, floating around the mid-143.00s. The mild retreat in the US dollar, paired with Japanese data releases, might draw further downsizing of long dollar exposure into Jibun Bank’s Services data. Should the services sector underperform, yen strength could reappear, adding pressure to those still overleveraged in one-directional positions. We will be watching volatility levels here, as thin liquidity can exaggerate movements.
AUD/USD also edged responsibly higher, pushing towards 0.6500. Beyond this being a technically interesting zone, upcoming building and housing permit releases may add fuel to the move. Even modest upside surprises could validate traders leaning long on a short-term basis, especially if risk sentiment globally improves. Watch for price action reactions—much depends on whether the follow-through carries over into the Asia session.
Elsewhere, commodity-linked plays deserve close attention. West Texas Intermediate crude sank towards $55, which places it near multi-month lows. With OPEC+ alluding to possible output cuts at the next monthly meeting, we find the space open for speculative interest to accumulate again if confirmation comes early. Keep an eye on inventory reads this week—they often steer sentiment before official output announcements even surface.
Precious metals, by contrast, are turning into safe parking zones again. Gold lifted comfortably upwards past $3,300, reflecting renewed defensive positioning. Silver, too, held steady around $32, showing that the appetite for tangible assets hasn’t disappeared. These gains don’t appear purely speculative—they have coincided with weaker dollar trade and slipping Treasury yields, both of which typically support metals. There is opportunity here for those looking to hedge against either market shocks or prolonged central bank inaction.
