Insights 
VT 
USDCAD trades with a bearish inclination, as the 100-hour (1.38197) and 200-hour (1.38394) moving averages limit upward movements. Attempts to rise have stalled near these levels, acting as a resistance barrier.
Downside momentum is modest, with lows edging slightly lower. Sellers maintain control as long as the price remains below these moving averages.
Consolidation Range and Support Levels
A break above 1.38394 could alter the bias, though current rallies present selling opportunities. The daily chart suggests a target below Friday’s low at 1.37415, aligning with a 61.8% retracement from 2023 lows and mid-October swing lows.
The broader daily chart places USDCAD within a consolidation range from September 2022 to November 2024.
Key levels include resistance at 1.38197 (100-hour moving average) and 1.38394 (200-hour moving average), with support at 1.3781 (April 14 low), 1.37698 (April 30 low), and 1.37593 (May 2 low).
The information above outlines the current condition of the USD/CAD currency pair from a technical analysis standpoint. Essentially, what is being shown is that upward movement in the pair is repeatedly running into selling interest near the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages—markers often taken as near-term trend indicators. These two averages, at 1.38197 and 1.38394 respectively, are restricting gains, effectively forming a ceiling that the price struggles to breach.
The price action remains contained beneath these moving averages, and traders have been showing a preference to sell into short lived rallies. Downward pressure isn’t forceful, but there’s a persistent drift lower in recent sessions, which reflects control by those on the sell side. As long as the price remains capped beneath those two levels, the technical sentiment stays tilted to the downside.
Trading Strategy and Risk Management
A move beyond the 200-hour average, the higher of the two levels, would disrupt this structure, opening the door to a shift in tone. That said, so far, attempts to push above it have been used as opportunities to sell rather than signs of strength. This should not surprise anyone watching the pair’s longer-term tendencies.
Looking at the daily timeframe, the broader context shows the pair continuing to move within an extended range that’s held since September of 2022. While that range suggests uncertainty at higher levels, recent action has pointed towards the lower edge. Notably, the price is drawing closer to Friday’s trough at 1.37415. That level isn’t arbitrary—it’s lined up with the 61.8% retracement level from the rise seen from the 2023 low. Familiarity with Fibonacci retracement zones tells us that if this one gives way, the doors open to more persistent declines.
Beyond that point, traders will be keeping their eyes on the lower supports around 1.3781, 1.37698, and 1.37593—levels that came into play on specific dates in April and early May. Breaks below each one would add to bearish conviction, especially since none of them have yet prompted sustained buying pressure.
From our side, the strategy remains consistent. We’ve been watching how failed breakouts near the two hourly moving averages create repeatable conditions. Hills of price failure near those levels have created a short set-up that can be tracked plainly. If the current trend holds, short positions with tight risk controls just above these resistance levels allow entries with favourable reward-to-risk profiles. Targets below 1.37415 appear well defined.
The playbook doesn’t require guessing, just following the reaction to these established areas. Risk is clear; so is the path if the pressure persists. As long as price is penned below those averages, the path of least resistance stays downward.
