Insights 
VT 
Market dynamics are primarily influenced by expectations. Asset prices adjust as the market reevaluates future expectations, creating trading opportunities whenever predictions are inaccurate.
When conditions shift, the market alters its expectations, which then impact asset prices. Current market conditions have already been considered in existing prices, so trading should be based on future changes.
Importance Of Understanding Market Expectations
Understanding market expectations is essential for trading. This knowledge allows one to identify changes, capitalise financially, and avoid investing in already priced-in conditions, thus protecting capital.
In April, the market expected 50% tariffs for China and 10% for other nations. Higher announced tariffs led the market to anticipate retaliation, economic slowdown, and recession risks.
By April 9, expectations shifted again following negotiations, causing the market to de-escalate concerns and reduce anticipated negative outcomes. Economic data were disregarded as they were outdated and lacked impact on changing expectations.
Recognising what’s priced in lets traders focus on developments that could modify expectations. These adjustments drive market prices, presenting profitable opportunities for those aware of these shifts.
What we’ve been witnessing is a textbook response to the way forward-looking markets behave. Prices don’t merely respond to what is happening right now—they adjust in real time to reflect what people think will happen next. That means, when projections are wrong, markets get jolted, and in that dislocation lies our entry point. Derivatives traders, who are by nature dealing in the future rather than the present, have a unique advantage in this regard.
The landscape earlier in the spring was shaped by predictions of elevated tariff levels against major trading partners. The assumption, at the time, was that these would trigger not only commercial pushback but also broader risks to global trade flows and domestic economic strength. Those fears found their way into volatility markets, futures curves, and pricing on cyclical stocks. Hedging activity surged in related sectors, reflecting a shared concern of downside risk.
Then came negotiations again, which softened the tone. As the talks progressed, urgency diminished and traders began adjusting accordingly. The speed of this turnaround was a reminder to stay agile. Figures from the economy released while this shift was happening were set aside. It wasn’t that they weren’t accurate—they simply didn’t move the needle because the narrative had already leapt forward.
Capitalising On Market Surprises
So now, rather than placing too much weight on outdated figures, we have to be attentive to what might genuinely change the view going forward. Watching what modifies sentiment—not reinforcing what’s already assumed—is far more effective. That might mean paying attention to previously marginal events, such as second-tier diplomatic gestures, or rising input costs feeding into supply chains, all of which are capable of moving market thinking.
Focus must remain on surprise. For example, a sudden policy change or an unexpected election result can swiftly reverse recent positioning. It doesn’t need to be monumental—merely unexpected. That’s the element priced scenarios miss, and it’s where short-term derivatives gain their edge.
We have learned that markets absorb known information quickly. Patterns in rates markets or drives in option premiums often scream what the consensus is. But those who wait for data to confirm an idea will already be late. It’s movement at the margin—where expectations budge slightly from the current consensus—that tends to affect price most directly and reward those on the right side of the shift.
The gap between perception and reality often narrows quickly once new information emerges, so anticipating where that gap might open again is key. Quiet periods preceding announcements often allow complacency to build. But when contrarian hints begin to flicker—perhaps inside more granular survey measures or commodity moves that don’t match the prevailing view—this is where we should lean in.
Short-dated derivatives may be particularly useful tools now. Their sensitivity to sudden changes in outlook, rather than longer-term trends, means they offer sharper positioning in uncertain periods. The challenge is not predicting future headlines, but spotting what others have missed or dismissed too easily.
Pricing tells us what everyone knows. Risk lies in what no-one expects. Watching for pivotal announcements, subtle tone shifts from institutions, or cracks in seemingly unified policies could offer that missing piece which pushes the market in a new direction. And when that happens, we don’t respond with hesitation—we act.
