Insights 
VT 
Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter showed a decrease of 0.98% quarter-on-quarter. This figure was below the anticipated forecast of a 0.89% contraction.
In foreign exchange markets, the EUR/USD pair sees an uptick, moving above the mid-1.1300s. This movement is occurring amid a weakening US Dollar, while the GBP/USD pair continues to hover near the 1.3300 mark due to economic uncertainty.
Gold Prices Rise
Gold prices have observed a rise driven by safe-haven demand and a declining US Dollar. Additionally, attention is turning towards the impending Federal Open Market Committee meeting for further market direction.
In the cryptocurrency sector, the price of Litecoin remains around $86. The potential approval of a spot Litecoin ETF by Canary Capital is considered more promising than for some other assets.
Despite a decrease in tariff rates, prevailing uncertainty remains a concern, with longer-term policy unpredictability posing risks. It is important for participants to remain cautious, recognising the complexities of these fluctuations without assuming resolutions are finalized.
The reported contraction in Indonesia’s GDP during the first quarter—coming in at -0.98%—is a deeper drop than economists had expected. This underperformance hints at broader challenges across Southeast Asia’s largest economy, which could have a knock-on effect on risk appetite in regional markets. Historically, weaker readings from Jakarta have led to downward pressures on emerging market currencies and a narrowing of carry trades involving the rupiah. Looking at this from a broader macro perspective, we see it feeding into reduced sentiment across Asia-Pacific exposures and influencing conservative positioning in regional futures.
Euro And Us Dollar Movements
Meanwhile, the upward nudge in the EUR/USD pair—lifting it past the mid-1.1300s—mirrors the current weakness in the US Dollar. That softness in the greenback has appeared alongside a general unwinding of safe-haven inflows, at least temporarily. Given the scale of recent dollar-buying and its implications for rate expectations, this latest movement suggests U.S. yields may have plateaued in the short term. Those engaging with dollar pairs across the major currencies should be fully aware of how these swings can amplify their intraday exposure, especially given downstream movements in swap spreads and interest rate derivatives.
Sterling’s position, stubbornly anchored near the 1.3300 line despite ongoing economic uncertainty, is telling. Recent data have not offered sufficient clarity for positioning beyond the very near term. In practice, that keeps skewed volatility pricing and risk-reversal premiums elevated. For those tracking cross-Atlantic rate differentials, this also reinforces the appeal of relative value trades. Any unexpected divergence in growth revisions or labor market softness in the UK could lead to slippages below recent support areas, particularly where volumes in cable options have been lighter.
We’ve also taken note of the renewed interest in gold, which has edged higher as a reaction against a falling dollar and increased demand from those seeking protection from market stress. The fact that gold is responding this way—not to inflation itself, but to broader monetary policy anticipation—is an outcome worth noting. Metals markets often telegraph sentiment before it becomes evident in traditional asset classes. As the Federal Open Market Committee meeting nears, there’s a growing pricing-in of dovish leanings, which could stretch interest-rate futures beyond their recent range. A move beyond current resistance levels in bullion, however, would likely require follow-through from rate-sensitive inputs.
Turning to Litecoin, the token’s price stability around $86 suggests a temporary floor has formed. However, what is more interesting is the increasing likelihood of a spot ETF being approved, possibly ahead of some other digital assets. Canary Capital’s efforts have been well-received, and this increases derivative interest around second-tier crypto names, where margin requirements remain somewhat lower. Should we see a concrete move on the regulatory front, volume on short-dated options may advance rapidly.
Lastly, even though tariff reductions have been introduced, there’s been no corresponding drop in policy uncertainty. This makes it impractical, at this point, to rely on multilateral agreements holding firm in the medium term. Traders should respond accordingly—not by fading the moves entirely, but by adjusting hedging ratios and remaining flexible in their exposure. In our view, certain scenario-based models underestimate the persistence of these unknowns, which often exert pressure on medium-dated swaption vol. By the time contract expiry nears, those ignored variables begin to weigh more visibly on pricing.
