Insights 
VT 
Key Points:
- 10-year yield held at 4.36%, with futures settling at 110.83 after testing an intraday high of 111.55.
- Trump softened rhetoric on Chinese tariffs but officials noted no formal talks are underway.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent cautioned that no unilateral cuts are planned.
- Trump’s backing of Powell earlier this week helped calm bond markets amid Fed policy speculation.
The U.S. 10-year note opened Thursday’s session around 110.66 and saw a brief push to 111.55 as early reports suggested the Trump administration may ease tariffs on Chinese imports. This move initially stoked risk appetite and supported bonds, as reduced trade friction typically moderates inflation expectations and boosts demand for Treasuries.
However, gains were quickly pared after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that no formal talks with China had begun, and no unilateral decisions on tariff reductions were under consideration. This checked early optimism and prompted a pullback to 110.83 by the close of the session.
Political Signals and Bond Market Reaction
Markets also reacted to Trump’s earlier assurance that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would not be removed, a move seen as maintaining central bank credibility amid political pressure for rate cuts. The signal helped bond investors regain confidence that monetary policy would remain data-driven rather than politically influenced.
Technical Analysis
After a relatively flat start, USNote10Y saw a sharp upside breakout, rallying to a session high of 111.55. An aggressive slope in the 5- and 10-period moving averages supported the strong upward movement, confirming momentum strength. However, this spike proved unsustainable, as price quickly reversed and retraced below the 30-MA, dipping to a low of 110.64.
Picture: US10Y spikes to 111.55 before retreating; eyes now on whether bulls can reclaim the upper band, as seen on the VT Markets app
Currently, the price is recovering modestly, with the MACD showing decelerating bearish momentum and potential for a crossover above the signal line. The price is consolidating just above the 110.80 zone, hovering near short-term resistance.
A break above 111.00 could see renewed bullish pressure, while failure to reclaim the moving averages cleanly may result in a range-bound drift below 110.90.
Looking Ahead
With tariff talks in limbo and U.S. inflation data approaching, the Treasury market is likely to remain sensitive to policy headlines and trade negotiations. Traders will be watching closely for confirmation of any actual progress on U.S.-China relations, while Friday’s PCE inflation print may help clarify the Fed’s rate path in coming months.
