USDCHF traded sideways last week after a strong decline, hitting its lowest point since 2011. This consolidation created a support area between 0.8098 and 0.81288 and allowed the 100-hour moving average to approach the price level.
On Thursday, the pair briefly exceeded the 100-hour moving average but failed to surpass earlier swing highs. By Friday, it had dropped below the 100-hour moving average, solidifying a short-term downward trend.
Decline Below Key Levels
The downward trend continued into today’s session, with USDCHF falling below the April 11 low of 0.80987 and remaining beneath it. With the pair at multi-year lows and limited historical support, the trend remains downward unless key levels are reclaimed by buyers.
To reverse the trend, buyers must first reclaim the April 11 low of 0.80987, then surpass the high of 0.81288. Following that, they need to test the 100-hour moving average at 0.81576 and challenge the 200-hour moving average at 0.82119.
Successfully overcoming these resistance levels could bolster buyer confidence and challenge seller control. Until such levels are recaptured, sellers maintain control in both short to medium-term and long-term perspectives.
Focus On Resistance Levels
The original passage outlines a directional shift in USDCHF following a sharp slide to levels not seen since 2011. After reaching these lows, the pair paused, moving sideways for part of the week and creating a temporary floor between 0.8098 and 0.81288. This kind of pause after a rapid loss tends to indicate a moment of reassessment—prices often settle before either resuming in the same direction or attempting a retracement. Simultaneously, short-term moving averages, particularly the 100-hour, began to approach current trading levels, hinting at either an alignment for continuation or a squeeze point that could trigger volatility.
By Thursday, there was a brief break above this moving average, a move sometimes seen as a test of buyer strength. However, that attempt stalled below previous swing points, a sign that the buying interest lacked intensity. Friday confirmed that view. The price dropped again, falling back beneath the 100-hour average. That cemented what had already been underway—a short-term bias to the downside now reinforced by technical failure.
Moving into the current session, the pair not only sustained its direction but slipped under the April 11 low. A new low in this context is another confirmation of downside momentum. The lack of visible past support levels due to this being a multi-decade trough leaves limited technical reference points for buyers to lean on. That makes the job of defending against further losses more difficult.
From here, the focus shifts toward the reaction at previous support levels, which now act as resistance. Reclaiming early April’s low at 0.80987 carries weight—not because it’s a psychological milestone, but because doing so would be evidence of buyers chipping away at the trend. Further up, there’s 0.81288, followed closely by the short-term average at 0.81576. The 200-hour line at 0.82119 stands as a medium-term threshold that would need to be broken to genuinely shift sentiment.
From our view, each one of those steps amounts to a filter. A failure to cross back above means sellers have little reason to back off. Instead, they grow more confident, letting momentum ride lower. What this means in practical terms is that any upward push has to prove itself—it has to be earned level by level. Until then, the default remains intact. Traders looking at this chart aren’t waiting for a bounce; they’re measuring the weakness through failed recovery attempts.
In recent days, the steady drift lower has not met any major interruption. Until price starts closing back above the cluster of levels discussed, narratives remain unchanged. That gives very little room for uncertainty. Sustained control still sits with those aligned to the downmove, and there’s direct reinforcement of that in both structure and reaction. Any shifts would need to start with recapturing that first threshold—and even that would not flip the picture, only open the door slightly.
We continue to monitor whether price action triggers stops below recent lows, potentially accelerating momentum, or whether buyers mount another test at the moving averages. At this stage, the burden of proof sits squarely on the other side.
